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ELF DETECTOR
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The ELF
Detector by Loch Harris and ChemTech
This page
is in response to numerous requests for comments on this development.
We have tried to present some arguments and questions which need to be
asked of those proposing this technology. Most of the questions have come
from potential or current investors in the project. (Updated 10th May
2000)
The intention
of this page is to answer most questions, and provide some considered
opinions on the basis of our own experience.
Some articles
which have appeared in the news media have questioned the scientific credentials
of the people involved with the ELF detector and their previous commercial
record. Our comments are entirely restricted to technical issues, mainly
questions, which need to be addressed.
What we
do know is that real minefield conditions are usually much more difficult
to deal with than laboratory conditions or simulated minefields or even
prepared test sites and therefore we are pleased to hear that Dr. Blair
went to Croatia to do some tests. If you treat an investment as a 1:100
chance, and a donation towards the effort to find better ways to clear
landmines with a tiny chance of a pay-off, you will probably be happy.
Most likely, everyone involved has under-estimated the costs of transforming
a research idea into a working device.
As a rule
of thumb, if research costs $x, development costs $10x and getting a product
onto the market costs $100x.
The market
in demining is very small (probably about $200,000,000 maximum in the
next 10 years for all advanced detectors). The potential defence market
is much bigger, particularly for checking unsealed roads for anti-vehicle
mines with vehicle mounted detectors.
Questions
you can ask:
What
is the false negative probability for this detector?
Most detector researchers quote the detection (true positive) probability.
For minimum metal mines this is typically about 90% under ideal simulated
field conditions. But this is only a small part of the story. The most
important probability for any new detector is the false negative, or
the probability that a mine will be classified as harmless junk. This
must be acceptably small, probably less than 0.0001 (1 in 10,000).
The current UN specification is 99.6% mines cleared at depth of 20
cm. Well, 30 grams of RDX or TNT buried 20 cm down is almost impossible
to detect, and can look just like any anomaly in the ground (like a
rabbit hole for instance). A reliable detector must tell you beyond
reasonable doubt that the ground you are about to walk on is SAFE!
Will
this technology work through metal casings?
Many highly dangerous mines (and unexploded shells) have thick
metal casings which break into fragments on exploding. Often researchers
only focus on detecting plastic mines which are just part of the story.
What
has been spent on research?
If the initial research has cost $1,000,000 it will probably cost about
$100,000,000 to get a product into the market and you will need a market
of much more than that to recover the initial investment. Loch Harris
appear to be past the stage of initial research and some way into development.
What can we tell
from information which has been circulated on the internet?
It is difficult to be sure, but there are some interesting statements.
Karlovac is near a heavily mined area of Croatia so the environment
is reasonably realistic.
The Croatian Mine Action Centre staff are sincere in their efforts
to clear mines in Croatia. However, when translated into English, their
comments are usually very optimistic compared with statements made by
experienced foreign demining experts who normally speak in English.
Therefore one should normally treat their statements as being on the
optimistic side.
It is reported that the ELF prototype was "tested" near Karlovac
(the test was more a field demonstration than a test). It found 3 mines
in 5 minutes. But we are not told if it found other objects which might
be confused with mines.
"The lab tests were convincing, but the field tests that
located the 3 buried PMA-2 mines were outstanding. My friend knows
personally the CROMAC personnel involved in providing the "box" where
the mines were found, and they concur that this device works. Most
mines in Croatia are plastic (90%)and are of the types:
PMA-2 (TNT)
PMA-3 (TNT)
VS-50 (RDX)
PROM (TNT with metal shell)
There is a misconception here: metallic mines form a much larger proportion
of the mines found in Croatia than 90%. Plastic AP blast mines (see
other information) are usually used in combination with steel cased
fragmentation mines such as the PROM. They were laid to prevent opposition
forces from interfering with the more easily detected mnetallic mines.
During the field tests, there were three mines that produced three
different amplitudes of signal--one weak, one normal and one very
strong. When the mines were dug up, the weak signature was seen to
be extremely well sealed, the normal one was poorly sealed, and the
very strong one had its seal broken entirely, explaining the amplitudes.
What we really need to know is the chance that a mine will not be detected,
and at what depth. We do not know how deep the mines were placed. Normal
clearance procedures aim to clear mines from the top 20 cm of ground,
but we know they are not 100% reliable in doing this. Mine detection dog
performance has been shown to be erratic in Bosnia, but we don't understand
why this is so, or whether these difficulties also occur in Croatia.
The radiation safety of the ELF device may be an issue which may limit
its application if used as a man-portable detector. However, it is possible
that the real value of this device may be as a vehicle-mounted detector
for clearing roads. The issue here, and for the hand-carried version,
is the time needed to collect data. To be effective, road clearance
needs to be done at 20 - 40 kilometres per hour which means detection
must be very rapid.
One article has suggested that the ELF detector is designed to detect
TNT vapour emanating from mines beneath the surface of the ground. This
is an issue which affects several detection methods: dogs, chemical
sniffers etc. Research has shown that it is not easy to explain where
TNT or other explosive vapours from mines go in the ground. Water dissolves
them and carries them away, plants may ingest them, animals & microbes
may do so, and soil particles may absorb them too. Little is known,
apart from a few studies which have looked at the dispersion of TNT
and related products from contaminated sites where weapons have been
manufactured or stored.
What is our assessment
at the moment?
17th February 2000:
Without further information, we cannot tell how close the ELF detector
is to being useful in the field. We suspect the inventors are in the
same position: they need to do more tests.
We know of several other technologies that have been in this position
for several years now - such as ground penetrating radar. After several
promising field demonstrations in the mid 1990's we still have no field-usable
prototyopes, let alone a commercial unit.
Here are photographs of a minefield near Karlovac which consists mainly
of trash from looted buildings. Judge for yourself. The second picture
shows the general setting - we walked along a sealed road which was
cleared before our visit in 1997. For other photos from Croatia, refer
to our research reports.
Material
Circulated on Internet
(Reproduced from material sent to us)
E-mail received on May 8th (separate document)
15th February 2000
From: "Hendrik Ehlers" <ehlers@mgm.org> (MgM E-mail Landmines
Network)
>Subject: MgM Demining Network: Re: Please Help!
>Date: Tue, 15 Feb 2000 20:01:07 +0200
>Organization: MgM MineClearance NGO
>
>thanks for your message. I feel quite honoured that you ask for my
help.
>i''ve been following the ELF over quite some time and I am sure that
there
>is some potential.
>I am also sure that a test with notorious CROMAC does not mean very
much.
>Also your well-done website presentation does not do much to comfort
my
>practical scepticism.
>i also get letters from other people asking for help, people who have
>friends who invested their
>live-savings into ELF stocks and want my opinion.
>anyhow, we've been waiting for a good sensor since ages and i am ready
to
>give it a try.
>take your lessons made in the field, work on a real field version
and you
>may bring the ELF to a field
>test in one of our clearance operations, let's say in mozambique in
6 months
>from now on.
>the other way would be to involve an independent scientist who we
trust to
>check on the technical aspects
>of ELF. Sorry to be so critical, but I am inundated with fantastic
ideas to
>solve the global landmine
>crisis and all have one thing in common: they don't want to tell how
it
>works because they
>fear that somebody else copies and makes the big bucks. and that is
just not
>the way how
>MgM thinks the problem can be solved.
>
>Hendrik Ehlers
>Director & CEO of MgM - MineClearance NGO
>Stiftung Menschen gegen Minen
>ehlers@mgm.org
>http://www.mgm.org
>ICQ 55073625
>cel +264 81 1277020
>fax +264 61 243477
14th February 2000
short and sweet... what do you make of this?
http://www.ragingbull.com/mboard/boards.cgi?board=LOCH&read=48913
By: Dr._Schoening
Reply To: None Tuesday, 15 Feb 2000 at 5:00 PM EST
Post # of 48988
Some inside facts on a technical note about ELF.
I have a friend at the Ruder Boskovic Institute in Croatia who just
reported to me about the facts there. The tests were real and done under
difficult circumstances. The lab tests were convincing, but the field
tests
that located the 3 buried PMA-2 mines were outstanding. My friend knows
personally the CROMAC personnel involved in providing the "box"
where the
mines were found, and they concur that this device works. Most mines in
Croatia are plastic (90%)and are of the types:
PMA-2 (TNT)
PMA-3 (TNT)
VS-50 (RDX)
PROM (TNT with metal shell)
ELF senses the x-ray fluorescence return from exciting the nitrates
in explosives, but those nitrates have distinguishable spectral lines,
as
observed by the entire staff of physicists at Ruder Boskovic. During the
field tests, there were three mines that produced three different
amplitudes of signal--one weak, one normal and one very strong. When the
mines were dug up, the weak signature was seen to be extremely well sealed,
the normal one was poorly sealed, and the very strong one had its seal
broken entirely, explaining the amplitudes. Many tests were apparently
done
at the Ruder Boskivik lab to verify that the vapors from the explosives
were, in fact, providing the fluorescence returns (mostly decays to the
k-alpha level, but some to the L-alpha as well. Range seems to be limited
to about 2 meters right now, but the optics Dr. Blair mentions should
improve that somewhat. For those interested about exact transmission of
x-rays through the atmosphere, visit the web site:
http://cindy.lbl.gov/optical_constants/. Use 10,000eV x-rays and some
path
length in the range 3,000cm to 10,000cm to see a plot of the transmission
yourself.
One of the pictures sent to the US showed a roped-off area where the
mines were located in the field--according to the Ruder Boskovic staff,
this is typical of the "box" method of demining in Croatia:
a path is first
cleared, then a short one at right angles to that, then a return path,
and
finally joining with the original position. The "box" thus created
is then
probed for mines. During the tests in Croatia, one of these boxes was
left
uncleared for ELF to locate possible mines. Not only were all the mines
found, but a sardine can that was missed by previous deminers (mostly
metal
locators and probes)was located by its strong tin/iron fluorescence lines
at 3.44 and 6.40keV. The x-ray source is apparently providing a high flux
during measurements, but I am told that it was shut off while people were
milling around as seen in one of the photographs! All in all, I believe
the
physics is sound and the basic technology is proven, and my colleagues
at
Ruder Boskovic agree.
(Voluntary Disclosure: Position- No Position)
13th February 2000
LOCH's biggest news yet IMHO!
If results are the bottom line and many devices have failed when they
are
promoted from the laboratory environment to the field, would this not
be
really big news?!. In my very humble opinion, this is WONDERFUL!!
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/000214/loch_chemt_1.html
Monday February 14, 12:16 am Eastern Time
Company Press Release
SOURCE: Loch Harris, Inc.
ELF's Field Efficiency Surprises Loch/ChemTech scientists As Well as
Croatian Hosts
KARLOVAC, Croatia, Feb. 14 /PRNewswire/ -- ``Revolutionary'' declared
a
story in the local Jutarnji List newspaper yesterday as it hailed the
first
ever live minefield test of Loch/ChemTech's ELF landmine detector. But
some
of the results were surprising even to its developers according to CEO
Rodney Boone in his first email report from the war-scarred town of
Karlovac, 40 Kilometers from Croatia.
``Normal procedure would have called for more private, controlled field
tests at home before laying our dreams and reputations on the line like
that,'' said Boone, referring to the impromptu nature of the field
challenge.
``But after ELF had just performed its most rigorous laboratory test yet
under conditions dictated by our hosts (the state-owned Rudjer Boskovic
Institute),'' he said, ``we decided to take the risk.''
Rigorous? The institute, which is located in the heart of one of the most
heavily mined areas of the world, had insisted on rotating eight boxes
through a series of five tests. ELF scored perfect in identifying which
boxes had explosives and what explosives, if any were contained.
``This was by far the most rigorous laboratory test we had put ELF
through,'' said noted physicist Dr. Henry Blair, who developed the
technology.
``After scoring 40 out of 40 perfect 'hits,''' said Boone, ``we felt we
were ready for anything.''
The daring move brought a crowd initially reported as 50 onlookers, but
Boone said it was more likely twice that number.
The local lead said, ``American experts from the company ChemTech, a
subsidiary of Loch Harris, Inc. (OTC Bulletin Board: LOCH - news), together
with scientists from the Rudjer Boskovic Institute of Zagreb and the
Croatian Demining Centre with headquarters in Sisac successfully introduced
some revolutionary new American equipment for the remote detection of
landmines yesterday in an actual minefield in the town of Karlovac,
formerly called Turanj.
``Croatia is the first country in which this apparatus has been tested,''
the article continued. ``It was announced that this apparatus is 40 times
faster than any type of hand demining. 'The apparatus (called ELF
-Eliminate Landmines Forever) works without direct contact with the
landmines or other explosive devices,' said the director of the Croatian
Centre for Demining Mr. Damir Gorseta.''
The Karvolac newspaper reported, ``In addition to the inventor of the
apparatus, Dr. Henry Blair, the event was witnessed by the wife of Prime
Minister Mr. Ivica Ratan, Mrs. Dijana Plestina, who organized the visit
of
the American experts for testing the American equipment on the minefields
in the Republic of Croatia. The demonstration was additionally witnessed
by
the members of the Scientific Council of the Croatian Demining Center,
which included the president of the council, Ivor Mojdak, and its member,
Ivo Sebus.''
Dr. Wade Poteet, co-founder of System Specialists, Inc. (SSI) and a
consultant to ChemTech/Loch, acknowledged some apprehensions about the
risk
of taking ELF from the lab environment to a live minefield.
``I was pleasantly surprised to see that the signal strength of ELF
actually increased and was stronger in the natural environment,'' he said.
``The mines stood out in a clearer contrast in the field than when ELF
was
picking up extraneous 'noise' from the laboratory setting -- linoleum,
walls, and the like.''
Poteet's partner, Harold Cauthen, also a consultant to Loch/ChemTech
observed, ``The ELF performed wonderfully in outdoor conditions in areas
with vegetation and grass up to six inches with no noticeable effect on
the
signal.''
ELF was able to locate and identify three buried landmines within five
minutes in an area of known contamination, but Cauthen was just as pleased
that ``ELF was able to receive more info than anticipated regarding
discrimination between the various types of explosives used.''
Immediately following the successful field test, reported Boone, ChemTech
and CROMAC representatives began preparations for continued cooperative
efforts and mutual support towards further development of applications
of
the ELF technology.
Boone and the Loch/ChemTech team expect to return the ELF to its Tucson,
Ariz. laboratories early this week.
A slide show depicting the ELF field test may be seen on the Loch Harris,
Inc. Web site at http://www.lochharris.com/chemtech.html .
Safe Harbor Statement under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act
of
1995: The statements which are not historical facts contained in this
press
release are forward-looking statements that involve certain risks and
uncertainties including but not limited to risks associated with the
uncertainty of future financial results, regulatory approval processes,
the
impact of competitive products or other uncertainties detailed in the
Company's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
SOURCE: Loch Harris, Inc.
ELF Detector
LOCH HARRIS
WHAT DO WE THINK?
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